| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 41-24 | 1499.6 | +13.7 | 1513.3 | 82.1% |
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | North Alabama | 55-6 | 1513.3 | +0.0 | 1513.3 | 51.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Toledo | 21-45 | 1513.3 | -48.6 | 1464.7 | 64.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Nevada | 31-16 | 1464.7 | +7.3 | 1472.0 | 88.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Missouri State | 27-22 | 1472.0 | +55.0 | 1527.0 | 42.8% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | W | Delaware | 27-24 | 1527.0 | +47.5 | 1574.5 | 52.0% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | L | Florida International | 6-25 | 1574.5 | -78.9 | 1495.6 | 90.5% |
| 10 | Oct 21 2025 | W | Louisiana Tech | 28-27 | 1495.6 | +24.6 | 1520.2 | 77.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 35-16 | 1520.2 | +9.4 | 1529.6 | 85.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 42-26 | 1529.6 | +4.6 | 1534.2 | 92.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | LSU | 10-13 | 1534.2 | -15.7 | 1518.5 | 23.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 34-37 | 1518.5 | -40.8 | 1477.7 | 55.9% |
| 19 | Dec 23 2025 | W | Southern Miss | 27-16 | 1477.7 | +22.7 | 1500.4 | 73.4% |